Indonesia is among the top four coffee-exporting countries in the world. However, Indonesia is still surpassed by Vietnam. Thus, it is important to examine the perspective of Indonesian coffee in the world market. This research is relevant to socio economics, which aims to analyze forecasting and find factors that affect the value of Indonesian coffee exports in the world market. The data used are secondary data from UN Comtrade, BPS, Pusdatin, World Bank, and ITC Trade Map 1990–2021. The analysis methods used are Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and multiple linear regression. The results of the Holt-Winters Additive (1,0,0) analysis show that coffee forecasting HS code 0901 has a positive value during 2022–2030 ranging from 776,069,416 US$ to 1,350,856,278 US$ with an RMSE value of 0.271 and a MAPE of 1.52. Forecasting coffee HS code 090111 shows a positive export value in the range of 754,958,154 US$ to 1,360,263,818 with an RMSE value of 0.283 and a MAPE of 1.60. Factors that significantly affect the export value of Indonesian coffee on HS 0901, HS 090111, and HS 090121 in the world are domestic coffee prices, while domestic coffee production, world coffee prices, rupiah exchange rates, and export tariffs do not significantly affect the export value. Factors that have a significant effect on coffee with HS code 090122 are domestic coffee prices and domestic coffee production, while world coffee prices, rupiah exchange rates, and export tariffs have no significant effect on export values.
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30 July 2024
THE 7TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF COMBINATORICS, GRAPH THEORY, AND NETWORK TOPOLOGY 2023
21–22 November 2023
Jember, Indonesia
Research Article|
July 30 2024
Indonesian coffee in a world market perspective: Export forecasting and influencing factors
Ati Kusmiati;
Ati Kusmiati
a)
1
Jember University
, Kalimantan Street number 37, Tegal Boto Campus, Jember, Indonesia
a)Corresponding author: ati.faperta@unej.ac.id
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Devia Fitriani;
Devia Fitriani
b)
1
Jember University
, Kalimantan Street number 37, Tegal Boto Campus, Jember, Indonesia
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Titin Agustina;
Titin Agustina
c)
1
Jember University
, Kalimantan Street number 37, Tegal Boto Campus, Jember, Indonesia
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Yuli Hariyati;
Yuli Hariyati
d)
1
Jember University
, Kalimantan Street number 37, Tegal Boto Campus, Jember, Indonesia
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Ebban Bagus Kuntadi;
Ebban Bagus Kuntadi
e)
1
Jember University
, Kalimantan Street number 37, Tegal Boto Campus, Jember, Indonesia
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Agus Supriono
Agus Supriono
f)
1
Jember University
, Kalimantan Street number 37, Tegal Boto Campus, Jember, Indonesia
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AIP Conf. Proc. 3176, 030044 (2024)
Citation
Ati Kusmiati, Devia Fitriani, Titin Agustina, Yuli Hariyati, Ebban Bagus Kuntadi, Agus Supriono; Indonesian coffee in a world market perspective: Export forecasting and influencing factors. AIP Conf. Proc. 30 July 2024; 3176 (1): 030044. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0222948
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