Indonesian coffee in a world market perspective: Export forecasting and influencing factors

Indonesia is among the top four coffee-exporting countries in the world. However, Indonesia is still surpassed by Vietnam. Thus, it is important to examine the perspective of Indonesian coffee in the world market. This research is relevant to socio economics, which aims to analyze forecasting and find factors that affect the value of Indonesian coffee exports in the world market. The data used are secondary data from UN Comtrade, BPS, Pusdatin, World Bank, and ITC Trade Map 1990–2021. The analysis methods used are Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and multiple linear regression. The results of the Holt-Winters Additive (1,0,0) analysis show that coffee forecasting HS code 0901 has a positive value during 2022–2030 ranging from 776,069,416 US$ to 1,350,856,278 US$ with an RMSE value of 0.271 and a MAPE of 1.52. Forecasting coffee HS code 090111 shows a positive export value in the range of 754,958,154 US$ to 1,360,263,818 with an RMSE value of 0.283 and a MAPE of 1.60. Factors that significantly affect the export value of Indonesian coffee on HS 0901, HS 090111, and HS 090121 in the world are domestic coffee prices, while domestic coffee production, world coffee prices, rupiah exchange rates, and export tariffs do not significantly affect the export value. Factors that have a significant effect on coffee with HS code 090122 are domestic coffee prices and domestic coffee production, while world coffee prices, rupiah exchange rates, and export tariffs have no significant effect on export values.