Climate change is a worldwide phenomenon that can cause many sudden changes, especially to water resources. Malaysia has experienced warming and rainfall abnormalities, especially in the last two decades, and therefore estimates of climate change in Malaysia receive a lot of attention. Global climate research is increasingly focused on severe temperature changes due to severe climatic phenomena like droughts and heat waves globally. This research aims to forecast maximum and minimum temperatures in Bukit Merah, Perak, for the years 2020-2050 and 2050-2080. This project predicted the magnitude of drought over the next 60 years, and the data collected is aid hydrologic modelling in the Bukit Merah, Perak. The findings analysed and addressed to estimate the future drought that may occur in the next 60 years. SDSM has been widely used for downscaling climate variables such as precipitation, rainfall, and temperature among statistical downscaling methods. Statistical downscaling provides local scale statistics, which is useful in climate change analysis. It involves the use of past weather data for a longer time to collect large-scale variables. Therefore, it was necessary to utilize the Root mean Square error (RSME) and the coefficient R2 to evaluate the performance of historical and simulated data from the model during the calibration and validation periods. The coefficient of determination (R2) during calibration and validation for maximum temperature were 0.89 and 0.67, while for minimum temperature, the value for calibration and validation is 0.83 and 0.85. Therefore, the drought forecasting is an early warning system that the most crucial stages for drought management that will arise in the future.

1.
D. A.
Dellasala
and
M. I.
Goldstein
, “
Introduction: Climate Change
,”
Encycl. Anthr.
,
1–5
,
xix
xx
(
2017
).
2.
S. H.
Franchito
and
V. B.
Rao
, “
Studies of Climate Change with Statistical-Dynamical Models: A Review
,”
Am. J. Clim. Chang.
04
(
01
),
57
68
(
2015
).
3.
W.
Suparta
, “
Characterization of Heat Waves : A Case Study for Peninsular Malaysia
,” (
2019
).
4.
S.
Zaid
,
N.
Myeda
,
N.
Mahyuddin
, and
R.
Sulaiman
, “
Malaysia ’ s Rising GHG Emissions and Carbon ’ Lock-In ’ Risk : A Review of Malaysia ’ s Rising GHG Emissions and Carbon ‘ Lock - In ’ Risk : A Review of Malaysian Building Sector Legislation and Policy
,”
6
, (
2015
).
5.
N. N. A.
Tukimat
,
A. S.
Othman
, and
S. N.
Rahmat
, “
Analysis of Potential Extreme Drought using Integrated Statistical Model
,”
IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci.
682
(
1
), (
2021
).
6.
C. H. J.
Bong
and
J.
Richard
, “
Drought and climate change assessment using standardized precipitation index (Spi) for sarawak river basin
,”
J. Water Clim. Chang.
11
(
4
),
956
965
(
2020
).
7.
C. J.
Chuah
,
B. H.
Ho
, and
W. T. L.
Chow
, “
Trans-boundary variations of urban drought vulnerability and its impact on water resource management in Singapore and Johor, Malaysia
,”
Environ. Res. Lett.
13
(
7
), (
2018
).
8.
R. M.
Khalid
, “
Review of the water supply management and reforms needed to ensure water security in Malaysia
,”
Int. J. Bus. Soc.
19
,
472
483
(
2018
).
9.
M.
Amirabadizadeh
,
A. H.
Ghazali
,
Y. F.
Huang
, and
A.
Wayayok
, “
Downscaling daily precipitation and temperatures over the Langat River Basin in Malaysia : A comparison of two statistical downscaling approaches
,”
Int. J. Water Resour. Environ. Eng.
8
,
120
136
(
2016
).
10.
Z.
Hassan
and
S.
Harun
, “
Hydrological Response of a Catchment to Climate Change in the Kurau River Basin, Perak, Malaysia
,”
3rd Int. Conf. Manag. Rivers 21st Century Sustain. Solut. Glob. Cris. Flooding, Pollut. Water Scarcity
,
216
225
(
2011
).
11.
S.
Gagnon
,
B.
Singh
,
J.
Rousselle
, and
L.
Roy
, “
An Application of the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to simulate climatic data for streamflow modelling in Québec
,”
Can. Water Resour. J.
30
(
4
),
297
314
(
2005
).
12.
Z.
Hasan
, “
Bukit Merah reservoir sedimentation assessment
,”
Environ. Sci.
8
,
86
90
(
2011
).
13.
M. S.
Zakeyuddin
,
A. S. R. Md
Sah
,
M. S.
Mohammad
,
N. F. M.
Fadzil
,
Z. H.
Hashim
, and
W. M. W.
Omar
, “
Spatial and temporal variations of water quality and trophic status in Bukit Merah Reservoir, Perak
,”
Sains Malaysiana
,
45
(
6
),
853
863
(
2016
).
14.
S. H. A.
Talib
,
M. S.
Yusoff
, and
Z. A.
Hasan
, “
Modeling of sedimentation pattern in bukit merah reservoir, perak, Malaysia
,”
Procedia Eng.
50
,
201
210
(
2012
).
15.
M.
Reza
,
S.
Harun
, and
M.
Askari
, “
Streamflow Forecasting in Bukit Merah Watershed By Using Arima and Ann
,”
Portal J. Tek. Sipil
,
9
(
1
),
18
26
(
2018
).
16.
T.
Tahir
,
A. M.
Hashim
, and
K. W.
Yusof
, “
Statistical downscaling of rainfall under transitional climate in Limbang River Basin by using SDSM
,”
IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci.
140
(
1
),
012037
(
2018
).
17.
Z.
Hassan
and
S.
Harun
, “
Statistical Downscaling for Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature
,”
United Kingsom-malaysia-irel. Eng. Sci. Conf. 2011 (UMIES 2011)
,
2014
(
2011
).
18.
N.
Hamidon
et al, “
Prediction of future climate change for rainfall in the upper kurau river basin, perak using statistical downscaling model (SDSM
),”
Civ. Eng. Archit.
7
(
6
),
33
42
(
2019
).
19.
N.
Hamidon
,
S.
Harun
,
M. A.
Malek
,
T.
Ismail
, and
N.
Alias
, “
Climate Prediction for Upper Kurau River Basin in Perak, Malaysia by using Statistical Downscaling Model
.”
20.
T.
Ismail
, “
Water Supply Reservoir Operation in the Framework of Climate Variability and Change
,” (
2013
).
21.
R. L.
Wilby
,
C. W.
Dawson
, and
E. M.
Barrow
, “
SDSM - A decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts
,”
Environ. Model. Softw.
,
17
(
2
),
145
157
(
2002
).
22.
J.
Huang
,
J.
Zhang
,
Z.
Zhang
,
C. Y.
Xu
,
B.
Wang
, and
J.
Yao
, “
Estimation of future precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method
,”
Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess.
25
(
6
),
781
792
(
2011
).
23.
X.
Fan
,
L.
Jiang
, and
J.
Gou
, “
Statistical downscaling and projection of future temperatures across the Loess Plateau, China
,”
Weather Clim. Extrem.
32
,
100328
(
2021
).
24.
M.
Hussain
,
K. W.
Yusof
,
M. R.
Mustafa
, and
N. R.
Afshar
, “
Application of statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for long term prediction of rainfall in Sarawak, Malaysia
,”
Water Resour. Manag. VIII
,
1
,
269
278
(
2015
).
25.
S. H.
Pour
,
A. K. A.
Wahab
,
S.
Shahid
, and
Z.
Bin Ismail
, “
Changes in reference evapotranspiration and its driving factors in peninsular Malaysia
,”
Atmos. Res.
246
,
105096
(
2020
).
26.
K.
Chim
,
J.
Tunnicliffe
,
A.
Shamseldin
, and
K.
Chan
, “
Identifying future climate change and drought detection using CanESM2 in the upper Siem Reap River, Cambodia
,”
Dyn. Atmos. Ocean.
94
,
2020
(
2021
).
27.
D. S. N. A. P. A.
Hasan
,
U.
Ratnayake
,
S.
Shams
,
Z. B. H.
Nayan
, and
E. K. A.
Rahman
, “
Prediction of climate change in Brunei Darussalam using statistical downscaling model
,”
Theor. Appl. Climatol.
133
(
1–2
),
343
360
(
2018
).
28.
M. A.
Malek
,
L. T.
Razak
,
P. D.
Makmur
, and
U. T.
Nasional
, “
Climate Change Impacts On Representative concentration pathways, RCPs
,”
16
(
2
),
1287
1298
(
2021
).
This content is only available via PDF.
You do not currently have access to this content.