Climate change is a worldwide phenomenon that can cause many sudden changes, especially to water resources. Malaysia has experienced warming and rainfall abnormalities, especially in the last two decades, and therefore estimates of climate change in Malaysia receive a lot of attention. Global climate research is increasingly focused on severe temperature changes due to severe climatic phenomena like droughts and heat waves globally. This research aims to forecast maximum and minimum temperatures in Bukit Merah, Perak, for the years 2020-2050 and 2050-2080. This project predicted the magnitude of drought over the next 60 years, and the data collected is aid hydrologic modelling in the Bukit Merah, Perak. The findings analysed and addressed to estimate the future drought that may occur in the next 60 years. SDSM has been widely used for downscaling climate variables such as precipitation, rainfall, and temperature among statistical downscaling methods. Statistical downscaling provides local scale statistics, which is useful in climate change analysis. It involves the use of past weather data for a longer time to collect large-scale variables. Therefore, it was necessary to utilize the Root mean Square error (RSME) and the coefficient R2 to evaluate the performance of historical and simulated data from the model during the calibration and validation periods. The coefficient of determination (R2) during calibration and validation for maximum temperature were 0.89 and 0.67, while for minimum temperature, the value for calibration and validation is 0.83 and 0.85. Therefore, the drought forecasting is an early warning system that the most crucial stages for drought management that will arise in the future.
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7 June 2024
PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON GREEN ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY 2022 (ICONGETECH 2022)
17–18 November 2022
Arau, Malaysia
Research Article|
June 07 2024
Future temperature for drought prediction in Bukit Merah, Perak by using SDSM modelling
Dharshilan A/L Murugan;
Dharshilan A/L Murugan
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
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Nuramidah Hamidon;
Nuramidah Hamidon
a)
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
a)Corresponding Author: [email protected]
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Nur Suhana Abdul Manap;
Nur Suhana Abdul Manap
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
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Nur Aini Mohd Arish;
Nur Aini Mohd Arish
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
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Nor Maizzaty Abdullah;
Nor Maizzaty Abdullah
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
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Mariah Awang;
Mariah Awang
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
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Alia Farhana Malik;
Alia Farhana Malik
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
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Nor Hazren Abdul Hamid;
Nor Hazren Abdul Hamid
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
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Hasnida Harun;
Hasnida Harun
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
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Norshuhaila Mohamed Sunar;
Norshuhaila Mohamed Sunar
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
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Mimi Suliza Muhamad;
Mimi Suliza Muhamad
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
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Roslinda Ali
Roslinda Ali
Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
, 84600 Pagoh, Johor, Malaysia
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a)Corresponding Author: [email protected]
AIP Conf. Proc. 2991, 020054 (2024)
Citation
Dharshilan A/L Murugan, Nuramidah Hamidon, Nur Suhana Abdul Manap, Nur Aini Mohd Arish, Nor Maizzaty Abdullah, Mariah Awang, Alia Farhana Malik, Nor Hazren Abdul Hamid, Hasnida Harun, Norshuhaila Mohamed Sunar, Mimi Suliza Muhamad, Roslinda Ali; Future temperature for drought prediction in Bukit Merah, Perak by using SDSM modelling. AIP Conf. Proc. 7 June 2024; 2991 (1): 020054. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0199148
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