This research presents a study on the existence of chaotic behaviour in COVID-19 time series data using the Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE) and forecasts the outcome of the new daily cases of infected people until 2023 by chaos indicators tools, Logistic Map. The study also chooses another mathematical model, Linear Regression, to verify the accuracy of the Logistic Map by comparing both methods. The comparison between these methods is analyzed by using Mean Square Error (MSE). The data was collected from the end of January until early December 2020 involving Malaysia, China, Singapore, the USA and Italy. The result shows the countries tested have the existence of chaotic behaviour. Meanwhile, forecasting depicts some countries whose cases are declining and some are increasing.
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19 August 2022
The 5th Innovation and Analytics Conference & Exhibition (IACE 2021)
23–24 November 2021
Kedah, Malaysia
Research Article|
August 19 2022
The application of chaos theory in COVID-19 data analysis
Nurul Umirah Mohd Fauzi;
Nurul Umirah Mohd Fauzi
a)
1
Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Cawangan Negeri Sembilan, Kampus Seremban
, Seremban 70300 Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
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Muhammad Al-Aniq Abu Bakar;
Muhammad Al-Aniq Abu Bakar
b)
1
Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Cawangan Negeri Sembilan, Kampus Seremban
, Seremban 70300 Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
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Nurul Hidayah Zolkply;
Nurul Hidayah Zolkply
c)
1
Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Cawangan Negeri Sembilan, Kampus Seremban
, Seremban 70300 Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
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Siti Hidayah Muhad Saleh;
Siti Hidayah Muhad Saleh
d)
1
Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Cawangan Negeri Sembilan, Kampus Seremban
, Seremban 70300 Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
d)Corresponding author: [email protected]
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Muhamad Luqman Sapini;
Muhamad Luqman Sapini
e)
1
Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Cawangan Negeri Sembilan, Kampus Seremban
, Seremban 70300 Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
2
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
, Bangi 43600, Selangor, Malaysia
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Norliza Muhamad Yusof
Norliza Muhamad Yusof
f)
1
Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Cawangan Negeri Sembilan, Kampus Seremban
, Seremban 70300 Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
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d)Corresponding author: [email protected]
AIP Conf. Proc. 2472, 030011 (2022)
Citation
Nurul Umirah Mohd Fauzi, Muhammad Al-Aniq Abu Bakar, Nurul Hidayah Zolkply, Siti Hidayah Muhad Saleh, Muhamad Luqman Sapini, Norliza Muhamad Yusof; The application of chaos theory in COVID-19 data analysis. AIP Conf. Proc. 19 August 2022; 2472 (1): 030011. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0093272
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