Building a professional trajectory using the group argument method

The issues of the need to introduce advanced education in modern conditions are considered. The implementation of the concept of advanced education presupposes the formation of the ability of the education system to forecast. A method for constructing an individual professional trajectory by means of algorithms based on the self- organization approach is proposed. The method of group accounting of arguments was used as an example. The basic principles of algorithm design, optimality criteria, rules and main advantages of this method are presented. A mathematical forecasting model is presented. To test the performance of the predictive model using the method of group consideration of arguments, we took teachers engaged in career guidance work within the educational programs of additional pre-university education of the All-Russian Youth Center «Olymp» and collected statistical information about their publication activity. To build the model, a measuring sample was used for 30 years of the teacher’s work. The model was built and tested for teachers, not for students, because it is possible to use rather long-term statistics of their activities. It is concluded that the proposed model reflects the real-life professional trajectory of a teacher in terms of publication activity, which means that it can be used to predict individual professional trajectories of students.