Using willingness to pay to forecast time readiness of rooftop photovoltaic adoption in Jakarta and Surabaya

It is important to determine the time when people in a region are ready to adopt the technology. In addition,PT PLN (Persero) as an electric state-owned company also needs to find the time when PT PLN (Persero) has to be involved in rooftop photovoltaic business. To predict the readiness of rooftop photovoltaic adoption in Indonesia, this paper estimated the willingness to pay (WTP) of household customers then compared the WTP with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for scenario rooftop PV without batteries in two big cities namely Jakarta and Surabaya. In this discussion, a comparison of WTP and LCOE was carried out covering five years for the period 2018 to 2023.This study uses data from the National Social and Economic Survey (SUSENAS) conducted by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in March 2016 to estimate the WTP of electricity per year, sample respondent was1,081 households domiciled in Surabaya city and DKI Jakarta province. Calculation of estimated LCOE per year is carried out by assuming some data, namely investment costs, operational-maintenance costs, discount rates, and derating factors. The result indicates household customers in Surabaya have higher WTP than customers in DKI Jakarta, and rooftop PV systems in Surabaya have lower LCOE values than DKI Jakarta because Surabaya has a greater solar energy potential, thus, customers in Surabaya are expected to have a greater chance to adopt rooftop photovoltaic than DKI Jakarta.