All people have to make risky decisions in everyday life. And we do not know how true they are. But is it possible to mathematically assess the correctness of our choice? This article discusses the model of decision making under risk on the example of project management. This is a game with two players, one of which is Investor, and the other is the Project Manager. Each player makes a risky decision for himself, based on his past experience. With the help of a mathematical model, the players form a level of confidence, depending on who the player accepts the strategy or does not accept. The project manager assesses the costs and compares them with the level of confidence. An investor evaluates past results. Also visit the case where the strategy of the player accepts the part.
Topics
Mathematical modeling
REFERENCES
1.
A.
Kirjanen
, O.
Malafeyev
, N.
Redinskikh
, “Developing industries in cooperative interaction: Equilibrium and stability in processes with lag
”, Statistics, Optimization and Information Computing
, 2017
.2.
E.
Kriulina
, N.
Tarasenko
, N.
Miroshnitchenko
, I.
Zaitseva
, and I.
Dedyukhina
, “Environmental Management in Agriculture: Problems and Solutions
”, Research Journal of Pharmaceutical, Biological and Chemical Sciences
, no. 7
(3
), pp. 1908
–1912
, 2016
.3.
E.
Neverova
and O.
Malafeyev
, “A model of interaction between anticorruption authority and corruption groups”, AIP Conference Proceedings
, (American Institute of Physics
, 2015
).4.
E.G.
Neverova
, O.A.
Malafeyev
, G.V.
Alferov
and T.E.
Smirnova
, “Model of interaction between anticorruption authorities and corruption groups
” in International Conference on “Stability and Control Processes
” in Memory of V.I. Zubov, (SCP, Proceedings, SPb
, 2015
), pp. 488
–490
.5.
G.
Drozdov
, O.
Malafeyev
and S.
Nemnyugin
, “Multicomponent dynamics of competitive single-sector economy development
”, International Conference on “Stability and Control Processes
” in Memory of V.I. Zubov (SCP 2015 – Proceedings
, 2015
).6.
I.
Kolesin
, O.
Malafeyev
, M.
Andreeva
and G.
Ivanukovich
“Corruption: Taking into account the psychological mimicry of officials”, AIP Conference Proceedings
(American Institute of Physics
, 2017
).7.
I.
Zaitseva
and M.
Popova
, “Technique to study the employment potential of the region: economic-mathematical aspect
”, (World Applied Sciences Journal
, 2013
), no. 22
(1
), pp. 22
–25
.8.
I.
Zaitseva
, E.
Kriulina
, A.
Ermakova
, E.
Shevchenko
and Y.
Vorokhobina
, “Application of Factor Analysis to Study the Labour Capacity of Stavropol Krai
”, (Research Journal of Pharmaceutical, Biological and Chemical Sciences
, 2016
), no. 7
(4
), pp. 2183
–2186
.9.
I.
Zaitseva
, M.
Popova
, A.
Ermakova
, S.
Bogdanova
and D.
Rezenkov
, “Determination Prospects Of Development Labor Potential In Agriculture Stavropol Territory Based On Assessment His Condition
”, (Research Journal of Pharmaceutical, Biological and Chemical Sciences
, no. 7
(3
), 2016
), pp. 2592
–2595
.10.
I.
Zaitseva
, O.
Malafeyev
, S.
Strekopytov
, A.
Ermakova
and D.
Shlaev
, “Game-theoretical model of labour force training
”, Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology
, 2018
.11.
I.
Zaitseva
, O.
Malafeyev
, S.
Strekopytov
, G.
Bondarenko
and D.
Lovyannikov
, “Mathematic model of regional economy development by the final result of labor resources
”, AIP Conference Proceedings
, 2018
.12.
I.V.
Zaitseva
, A.N.
Ermakova
, D.V.
Shlaev
, E.A.
Shevchenko
, and S.I.
Lugovskoy
. “Workforce planning redistribution of the region’s results
”, (Research Journal of Pharmaceutical, Biological and Chemical Sciences.
2017
), 8
(1
), pp. 1862
–1866
.13.
K.
Kostyukov
, I.
Zaitseva
, G.
Bondarenko
, T.
Svechinskaya
and S.
Nechayeva
, “Workforce Planning as An Element of Control System
”, (Research Journal of Pharmaceutical, Biological and Chemical Sciences
, no. 7
(6
), 2016
), pp. 2315
–2319
.14.
M.A.
Vlasov
, V.V.
Glebov
, O.A.
Malafeyev
and D.N.
Novichkov
, “Experimental study of an electron beam in drift space
”, (Soviet journal of communications technology & electronics
, 1986
), 31
(3
), pp. 145
–149
.15.
O. A.
Malafeyev
, and N. D.
Redinskikh
Compromise solution in the problem of change state control for the material body exposed to the external medium
AIP Conference Proceedings
1959
, 080017
(2018
); 16.
O. A.
Malafeyev
, N. D.
Redinskikh
, S. A.
Nemnyugin
, I. D.
Kolesin
, and I. V.
Zaitseva
The optimization problem of preventive equipment repair planning
AIP Conference Proceedings
1978
, 100013
(2018
); 17.
O.
Malafeev
and S.
Nemnyugin
, “Generalized dynamic model of a system moving in an external field with stochastic components
”, (Theoretical and Mathematical Physics
, no. 107
(3
), 1996
), 770
p.18.
O.
Malafeev
, “On the existence of nash equilibria in a noncoope rative n-person game with measures as coefficients
”, (Communications in Applied Mathematics and Computational Science
, no. 5
(4
), 1995
), pp. 689
–701
.19.
O.
Malafeyev
, A.
Awasthi
, I.
Zaitseva
, D.
Rezenkov
and S.
Bogdanova
, “A dynamic model of functioning of a bank”, AIP Conference Proceedings
, (American Institute of Physics
, 2018
).20.
O.
Malafeyev
, D.
Rylow
, I.
Zaitseva
, M.
Popova
and L.
Novozhilova
, “Game-theoretic model of dispersed material drying process”, AIP Conference Proceedings
, (American Institute of Physics
, 2017
).21.
O.
Malafeyev
, D.
Saifullina
, G.
Ivaniukovich
, V.
Marakhov
and I.
Zaytseva
, “The model of multi-agent interaction in a transportation problem with a corruption component”, AIP Conference Proceedings
, (American Institute of Physics
, 2017
).22.
O.
Malafeyev
, K.
Farvazov
, O.
Zenovich
, I.
Zaitseva
, K.
Kostyukov
and T.
Svechinskaya
, “Geopolitical model of investment power station construction project implementation”, AIP Conference Proceedings
, (American Institute of Physics
, 2018
).23.
O.
Malafeyev
, S.
Nemnyugin
, D.
Rylow
, E.
Kolpak
and A.
Awasthi
, “Corruption dynamics model”, AIP Conference Proceedings
, (American Institute of Physics
, 2017
).24.
O.
Malafeyev
, A.
Awasthi
, K.
Kambekar
, A.
Kupinskaya
, “Random walks and Market Efficiency in Chinese and Indian equity markets
”, K.S., 2019
, Statistics, Optimization and Information Computing
, 7
(1
), pp. 1
–25
.25.
V.N.
Kolokoltsov
, O.A.
Malafeyev
, “Corruption and botnet defense: a mean field game approach
”, International Journal of Game Theory
, 2018
, pp. 1
–23
.26.
I.
Zaitseva
, O.
Malafeyev
, I.
Kolesin
, A.
Ermakova
, D.
Shlaev
, “Modeling of the labour force redistribution in investment projects with account of their delay
”, 2018 IEEE International Conference on Power, Control, Signals and Instrumentation Engineering, ICPCSI
2017
, pp. 68
–70
.27.
Y.A.
Pichugin
, O.A.
Malafeyev
, D.
Rylow
, I.
Zaitseva
, “A statistical method for corrupt agents detection
”, 2018
, AIP Conference Proceedings
, .28.
O.
Malafeyev
, D.
Rylow
, I.
Zaitseva
, A.
Ermakova
, D.
Shlaev
, “Multistage voting model with alternative elimination
”, 2018
, AIP Conference Proceedings
, .29.
O.
Malafeyev
, N.
Redinskikh
, “Quality estimation of the geopolitical actor development strategy
”, Source of the Document 2017 Constructive Nonsmooth Analysis and Related Topics
(Dedicated to the Memory of V.F. Demyanov), CNSA 2017
– Proceedings, .30.
V.N.
Kolokoltsov
, O.A.
Malafeyev
, “Mean-Field-Game Model of Corruption
”, Dynamic Games and Applications
, 2017
, 7
(1
), pp. 34
–47
.31.
O.A.
Malafeyev
, N.D.
Redinskikh
, “Stochastic analysis of the dynamics of corrupt hybrid networks
”, Proceedings of 2016 International Conference “Stability and Oscillations of Nonlinear Control Systems” (Pyatnitskiy’s Conference), STAB
2016
, .32.
Y.A.
Pichugin
, O.A.
Malafeyev
, “Statistical estimation of corruption indicators in the firm
”, Applied Mathematical Sciences
, 2016
, 10
(41-44
), pp. 2065
–2073
.33.
O.A.
Malafeyev
, S.A.
Nemnyugin
, “Model of the optimal parameters choice for the charged particles beam
”, 2016
, 25th Russian Particle Accelerator Conference
, RuPAC 2016, pp. 437
–439
.34.
Y.
Pichugin
, G.
Alferov
, O.
Malafeyev
, “Parameters estimation in mechanism design
”, Contemporary Engineering Sciences
, 2016
, 9
(1-4
), pp. 175
–185
.35.
G.V.
Alferov
, O.A.
Malafeyev
, A.S.
Maltseva
, “Game-theoretic model of inspection by anti-corruption group
”, AIP Conference Proceedings
, 1648
, 450009
(2015
), .
This content is only available via PDF.
© 2019 Author(s).
2019
Author(s)
You do not currently have access to this content.
