Assessment and prediction of the fragility of a country and the influence of climate change

Nowadays, Climate change plays an increasingly negative role in social and governmental structure. Most effects of climate change push countries to indulge in a fragile state where the government cannot provide the essentials to people. As a result, how to measure the impact of climate change and a country’s fragility is an issue of hot discussion. To determine the fragility of a country and the influence of climate change, we put forward Evaluating Prediction Model. This model can be divided into two parts: evaluation and prediction. To quantify whether a country is in a fragile state or not, it is necessary to develop a model to give scores to each country firstly. Different from normal evaluation methods, fourteen indicators are chosen to be measurements of fragility and then we build a Scoring Model according to the method of normalization and use Entropy Weight Method to determine the detailed weights of each indicator. After the total score of every country is determined, we develop Hierarchy Model based on the combination of Percentage Grading method and Quantile Grading method, to grade the degree of fragility and determine the tipping points with the help of countries’ total score. The lower a score is, the more fragile a country is. Then Prediction Model is built to demonstrate how climate change affect the fragility of a country. For the indicators not affected by climate change in a specific country, RBF Neural Network is chosen to do prediction. To verify whether our model meets the real situation or not, Chad, one of the top 10 fragile countries as measured by FFP is chosen by us to show how climate change increase the fragility of this country. The result shows that the climate change influences most over this period. Finally, following that we give three detailed intervention for government to mitigate the risk of climate change and estimate the cost that the government should pay to carry out these interventions based on our Evaluating Prediction Model. Idea of this paper comes from 2018ICM/MCM, the discussion regarding country fragility.