The interval from 1992 to 2017 is analyzed in the paper, while special attention is paid to the period of stable macroeconomic policy in Russia in 2002-2017. The focus is laid on the contradictory behavior of key indicators of economic development. Some models of multiple regression of the relationship between key economic indicators and monetary policy have been constructed using empirical data. The explanatory indicator of the models is GDP, and the predictors are the interest rate, the dollar-to-ruble rate and inflation. The presence of correlations between the predictors necessitated the inclusion of cross-members in the models (members with products of predictors). In the specific case of GDP, the contribution of cross-members turned out to be insignificant. The adequacy of models is checked not only by the coefficient of determination, but also by the diagram “Observed vs Expected GDP”. Clear time periods of systemic reorganization of the Russian economy (2002-2011 and 2011-2017) have been identified, which make it possible to build more reliable forecast models. The analysis of models shows that the macroeconomics of Russia is sensitive to the world economy fluctuations.
Skip Nav Destination
,
,
,
Article navigation
30 November 2018
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF COMPUTATIONAL METHODS IN SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING 2018 (ICCMSE 2018)
14–18 March 2018
Thessaloniki, Greece
Research Article|
November 30 2018
Regression models of macroeconomic paradoxes: The case of inflation and the interest rate in Russia Available to Purchase
A. P. Rylova;
A. P. Rylova
a)
1
Ural Federal University
, Mira 19, Ekaterinburg, Russia
, 620002a)Corresponding author:[email protected]
Search for other works by this author on:
A. N. Varaksin;
A. N. Varaksin
b)
2
Institute of Industrial Ecology of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
, S. Kovalevskaya 20, Ekaterinburg, Russia
, 620990
Search for other works by this author on:
M. A. Ilysheva;
M. A. Ilysheva
c)
1
Ural Federal University
, Mira 19, Ekaterinburg, Russia
, 620002
Search for other works by this author on:
A. A. Detkov
A. A. Detkov
d)
3
Ural State Economic University
, 8 Marta street 62, Ekaterinburg, Russia
, 620144
Search for other works by this author on:
A. P. Rylova
1,a)
A. N. Varaksin
2,b)
M. A. Ilysheva
1,c)
A. A. Detkov
3,d)
1
Ural Federal University
, Mira 19, Ekaterinburg, Russia
, 620002
2
Institute of Industrial Ecology of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
, S. Kovalevskaya 20, Ekaterinburg, Russia
, 620990
3
Ural State Economic University
, 8 Marta street 62, Ekaterinburg, Russia
, 620144
a)Corresponding author:[email protected]
AIP Conf. Proc. 2040, 050010 (2018)
Citation
A. P. Rylova, A. N. Varaksin, M. A. Ilysheva, A. A. Detkov; Regression models of macroeconomic paradoxes: The case of inflation and the interest rate in Russia. AIP Conf. Proc. 30 November 2018; 2040 (1): 050010. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5079108
Download citation file:
Pay-Per-View Access
$40.00
Sign In
You could not be signed in. Please check your credentials and make sure you have an active account and try again.
28
Views
Citing articles via
Effect of coupling agent type on the self-cleaning and anti-reflective behaviour of advance nanocoating for PV panels application
Taha Tareq Mohammed, Hadia Kadhim Judran, et al.
Design of a 100 MW solar power plant on wetland in Bangladesh
Apu Kowsar, Sumon Chandra Debnath, et al.
With synthetic data towards part recognition generalized beyond the training instances
Paul Koch, Marian Schlüter, et al.
Related Content
Assessing the best linear model of the interest rate policy and inflation in Russia in 2014-2017
AIP Conf. Proc. (July 2019)
Exploring two periods of monetary policy in Russia by regression models
AIP Conf. Proc. (July 2019)
Macroeconomic determinants of selected Asia housing market
AIP Conf. Proc. (June 2018)
The dynamic relationship between Bursa Malaysia composite index and macroeconomic variables
AIP Conf. Proc. (August 2017)
Macroeconomic factors and household savings: A case study in Malaysia
AIP Conf. Proc. (March 2024)