The effects of hard water consumption on kidney function: Insights from mathematical modelling

Most water sources in Nusa Tenggara Timur contain higher concentration of calcium and magnesium ions, which is known as hard water. Long-term consumption of hard water can cause kidney dysfunction, which may lead to the other diseases such as cerebrovascular disease, diabetes and others. Therefore, understanding the effects of hard water consumption on kidney function is of importance. This paper studies the transmission dynamics of kidney dysfunction due to the consumption of hard water using a mathematical model. We propose a new deterministic mathematical model comprising human and water compartments and conduct a global sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential parameters of the model. The Routh-Hurwitz criterion is used to examine the stability of the steady states. The results shows that the model has two steady states, which are locally stable. Moreover, we found that the most influential parameters are the maximum concentration of magnesium and calcium in the water, the increase rate of calcium and magnesium concentration in the water and the rate of effectiveness of water treatment. The results suggest that better water treatments are required to reduce the concentration of magnesium and calcium in the water. This aid in minimizing the probability of humans to attract kidney dysfunction. Furthermore, water-related data need to be collected for further investigation.