Mathematical and statistical models for determining the crop load in grapevine

Ensuring a balance between vine crop load and vine vegetative growth is a dynamic process, so it is necessary to develop models for describing this relationship. This study analyzed the interrelationship between the crop load and growing specific parameters (viable buds - VB, dead (frost-injured) buds - DB, total shoots growth-TSG, one-year-old wood - MSG), in two vine grapes varieties: Muscat Ottonel cultivar for wine and Victoria cultivar for fresh grapes. In both varieties interrelationship between the buds number and vegetative growth parameters were described by polynomial functions statistically assured. Using regression analysis it was possible to develop predictive models for one-year-old wood (MSG), an important parameter for the yield and quality of wine grape production, with statistical significance results (R² = 0.884, p <0.001, F = 45.957 in Muscat Ottonel cultivar and R² = 0.893, p = 0.001, F = 49.886 in Victoria cultivar).