A mathematical model, numerical algorithm and program code for simulation and long-term forecasting of changes in permafrost as a result of operation of a multiple well pad of northern oil and gas field are presented. In the model the most significant climatic and physical factors are taken into account such as solar radiation, determined by specific geographical location, heterogeneous structure of frozen soil, thermal stabilization of soil, possible insulation of the objects, seasonal fluctuations in air temperature, and freezing and thawing of the upper soil layer. Results of computing are presented.
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