This paper presents a theory of anticipatory networks that originates from anticipatory models of consequences in multicriteria decision problems. When making a decision, the decision maker takes into account the anticipated outcomes of each future decision problem linked by the causal relations with the present one. In a network of linked decision problems, the causal relations are defined between time-ordered nodes. The scenarios of future consequences of each decision are modeled by multiple vertices starting from an appropriate node. The network is supplemented by one or more relations of anticipation, or future feedback, which describe a situation where decision makers take into account the anticipated results of some future optimization problems while making their choice. So arises a multigraph of decision problems linked causally and by one or more anticipation relation, termed here the anticipatory network. We will present the properties of anticipatory networks and propose a method of reducing, transforming and using them to solve current decision problems. Furthermore, it will be shown that most anticipatory networks can be regarded as superanticipatory systems, i.e. systems that are anticipatory in the Rosen sense and contain a future model of at least one other anticipatory system. The anticipatory networks can also be applied to filter the set of future scenarios in a foresight exercise.
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Research Article| January 15 2013
Exploring the future with anticipatory networks
A. M. J. Skulimowski
A. M. J. Skulimowski
Department of Decision Science, Chair of Automatic Control and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Science and Technology, al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-050 Kraków, Poland. and International Centre for Decision Sciences and Forecasting Progress,
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AIP Conf. Proc. 1510, 224–233 (2013)
A. M. J. Skulimowski; Exploring the future with anticipatory networks. AIP Conf. Proc. 15 January 2013; 1510 (1): 224–233. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4776525
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