The Stochastic Multi‐strain Dengue Model: Analysis of the Dynamics Available to Purchase

Dengue dynamics is well known to be particularly complex with large fluctuations of disease incidences. An epidemic multi‐strain model motivated by dengue fever epidemiology shows deterministic chaos in wide parameter regions. The addition of seasonal forcing, mimicking the vectorial dynamics, and a low import of infected individuals, which is realistic in the dynamics of infectious diseases epidemics show complex dynamics and qualitatively a good agreement between empirical DHF monitoring data and the obtained model simulation. The addition of noise can explain the fluctuations observed in the empirical data and for large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton.