Florida’s Climate: Past, Present, and Future Available to Purchase

Projected temperature and precipitation trends in Florida appear to be quasi‐neutral—with precipitation forecasts more uncertain. These uncertainties are, in part, related to climate models and their inability to resolve aspects of the global circulation and internal oscillations. These problems can be exaggerated at the regional scale due to model resolution—adding further to the uncertainty as spatial scales decrease. For example, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a direct impact on Florida’s temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclone numbers but is not well reproduced. The need for higher model resolution has led to the development of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). These models continue to undergo evaluation. In what appears to be a limited area of research, Florida’s recent climate (i.e., the past 15 Ky) does not seem to have undergone significant changes in either temperature or precipitation but does indicate sea level fluctuations (rise) associated with events such as the Medieval Warm Period. Assuming that the precipitation and temperature forecasts are reliable, sea level rise is likely the most serious threat for the region.