We developed a model for oil production on the basis of simple physical considerations. The model provides a basic understanding of Hubbert’s empirical observation that the production rate for an oil-producing region reaches its maximum when approximately half the recoverable oil has been produced. According to the model, the oil production rate at a large field must peak before drilling peaks. We use the model to investigate the effects of several drilling strategies on oil production. Despite the model’s simplicity, predictions for the timing and magnitude of peak production match data on oil production from major oil fields throughout the world.
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We take to be approximately constant even as the oil fraction changes because . The combined density should not change by more than a small factor when oil is mixed with water or similar fluids.
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