We revisit a series of papers on science and society issues by David Hafemeister in the 1970s and 1980s. The emphasis in the present work is on world oil production limits and some consequences of various possible scenarios for the near future. Some of the data and scenarios used by Hafemeister are updated for U.S. oil production in the past two decades, and extended to an analysis of a peak in world oil production in the future. We discuss some simple scenarios for future energy use patterns and look at the consequence of these scenarios as world oil production begins to decline. We also provide a list of resources for critical investigations of natural resource extraction and depletion patterns.
REFERENCES
1.
D. W.
Hafemeister
, “Science and society test for scientists: The energy crisis
,” Am. J. Phys.
42
, 625
–641
(1974
).2.
D. W.
Hafemeister
, “Science and society test for scientists: Transportation
,” Am. J. Phys.
44
, 86
–90
(1976
).3.
D. W.
Hafemeister
, “Science and society test IV: The 94th Congress
,” Am. J. Phys.
47
, 671
–677
(1979
).4.
D. W.
Hafemeister
, “Science and society test VI: Energy economics
,” Am. J. Phys.
50
, 29
–38
(1982
).5.
D. W.
Hafemeister
, “Science and society test X: Energy conservation
,” Am. J. Phys.
55
, 307
–315
(1987
).6.
A. A.
Bartlett
, “Forgotten fundamentals of the energy crisis
,” Am. J. Phys.
46
, 876
–888
(1978
).7.
At least 20 books have been published on various aspects of the peak oil phenomena in the last five years alone. Among these are (chronologically listed)
Daniel
Yergin
, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power
(Simon & Schuster
, New York, 1991
);Kenneth S.
Deffeyes
, Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
(Princeton University Press
, Princeton, 2001
);Richard
Heinberg
, The Party’s Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies
(New Society
, Gabriola Island, BC, 2002
);Michael
Klare
, Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Landscape
(Henry Holt
, New York, 2002
);Richard
Heinberg
, Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World
(New Society
, Gabriola Island, BC, 2004
);Michael
Klare
, Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Petroleum Dependence
(Henry Holt
, New York, 2004
);Stephen and Donna Leeb,
The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis
(Warner Books
, New York, 2004
);Paul
Roberts
, The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World
(Houghton Mifflin
, New York, 2004
);Michael
Ruppert
, Crossing the Rubicon: September 11 and the Decline of American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil
(New Society
, Gabriola Island, BC, 2004
);Kenneth S.
Deffeyes
, Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert’s Peak
(Hill and Wang
, New York 2005
);Peter
,Huber
, and Mark
Mills
, The Bottomless Well: The Twlight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy
(Basic Books
, Cambridge, MA, 2005
);Matthew
Savinar
, The Oil Age is Over: What to Expect as the World Runs Out of Cheap Oil, 2005–2050
(Savinar Publishing
, Santa Rosa, CA
, 2004
);Matthew
Simmons
, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
(John Wiley & Sons
, New York, 2005
);William R.
Clark
, Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq, and the Future of the Dollar
(New Society
, Gabriola Island, BC, 2005
);Tom
Mast
, Over a Barrel: A Simple Guide to the Oil Shortage
(Hayden Publishing
, New York, 2005
);Aric
McBay
, Peak Oil Survival: Preparation for Life After Gridcrash
(Globe Pequot
, Guilford, CT, 2006
);Mick
Winter
, Peak Oil Prep: Three Things You Can Do to Prepare for Peak Oil, Climate Change and Economic Collapse
(Westsong
, Napa, 2006
).8.
M. K.
Hubbert
, “The world’s evolving energy system
,” Am. J. Phys.
49
, 1007
–1023
(1981
).9.
U.S. oil production record from 1859
⟨tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_a.htm⟩.10.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006
, ⟨www.bp.com/statisticalreview⟩.11.
T. S.
Ahlbrandt
et al, U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000 – Description and Results ⟨pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060/⟩.12.
A. A.
Bartlett
, “An analysis of U.S. and world oil production patterns using Hubbert-style curves
,” Math. Geol.
32
, 1
–17
(2000
).13.
R. C.
Duncan
and W.
Youngquist
, “Encircling the peak in world oil production
,” Nat. Resour. Res.
8
, 219
–232
(1999
).14.
S. C.
Davis
and S. W.
Diegel
, Transportation Energy Data Book
, Technical Report No. 6974 (Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN, 2006).15.
Robert L.
Hirsch
, Roger
Bezdek
, and Robert
Wendling
, “Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, and risk management
” February 2005
⟨http://campus.udayton.edu/~physics/rjb/PeakOil/Hirsch-DoEReport.pdf⟩.16.
U.S. Department of Energy
, Energy Information Administration ⟨www.eia.doe.gov⟩.18.
H.
Maclean
and L.
Lave
, “A life-cycle model of an automobile
,” Environ. Sci. Technol.
98
, 322A
–340A
(1998
).19.
R. M.
Heavenrich
, “Light-duty automotive technology and fuel economy trends: 1975 through 2006
,” Advanced Technology Division, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, July 2006
.20.
David S.
Lawyer
, “Fuel-efficiency of travel in the 20th century
,” ⟨www.lafn.org/~dave/trans/energy/fuel-eff-20th.html#toc2⟩.21.
World Energy Council
, Survey of Energy Resources ⟨www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/edc/default.asp⟩.22.
Gas Hydrate Database
⟨www.gashydat.org/quanty111.htm⟩.23.
Bengt
Söderbergh
, Fredrik
Robelius
, and Kjell
Aleklett
, “A crash program scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry
,” Energy Policy
35
, 1931
–1947
(2007
).24.
C.
Cleveland
, “Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States
,” Energy
30
, 769
–782
(2005
).25.
David
Pimentel
and Tad W.
Patzek
, “Ethanol production using corn, switchgrass, and wood; Biodiesel production using soybean and sunflower
,” Nat. Resour. Res.
14
, 65
–76
(2005
).26.
H.
Shapouri
, J. A.
Duffield
, and M.
Wang
, “The energy balance of corn ethanol: An update
,” U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist, Office of Energy Policy and New Uses. Agricultural Economic Report No. 813.27.
A. E.
Farrell
, R. J.
Plevin
, B. T.
Turner
, A. D.
Jones
, M.
O’Hare
, and D. M.
Kammen
, “Ethanol can contribute to energy and environmental goals
,” Science
311
, 306
–308
(2006
).28.
Energy Information Administration
, Monthly Energy Review ⟨www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html⟩.29.
United States Department of Agriculture
, Historical Track Records ⟨www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Track_Records/croptr06.pdf⟩.30.
31.
Renewable Energy Annual 2004
, Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels (U.S. Department of Energy Washington
, DC 20585)32.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
(2006
) ⟨www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9010972 &contentId=7021591⟩.33.
International Energy Agency
, “World energy outlook 2004
.” ⟨www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2004/weo2004.pdf ⟩.34.
“
Life cycle analysis
,” Wikipedia, ⟨en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_cycle_assessment⟩.35.
U.S. Department of Energy
, Solar Energy Technologies Program ⟨www.eere.energy.gov/solar/cfm/faqs/⟩.36.
James T.
Bartis
, Tom
LaTourrette
, Lloyd
Dixon
, D. J.
Peterson
, and Gary
Cecchine
, “Oil shale development in the United States: Prospects and policy issues
,” RAND Corp. ⟨www.rand.org/publications/MG/MG414/index.html⟩.37.
“
Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen - Nationale und Internationale Entwicklung
” (“Renewable Energy in Numbers - National and International Developments”), Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (BMU), June 2005
⟨www.erneuerbare-energien.de⟩.38.
H.
Hondo
, “Life cycle GHG emission analysis of power generation systems: Japanese case
,” Energy
30
, 2042
–2056
(2005
).39.
K.
Watkins
et al, Human Development Report, United Nations Human Development Programme (2005
) ⟨hdr.undp.org⟩.40.
International Monetary Fund
⟨www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/02/data/dbginim.cfm⟩.41.
G.
Bala
, K.
Caldeira
, A.
Mirin
, M.
Wickett
, and C.
Delire
, “Multicentury changes to the global climate and carbon cycle: Results from a coupled climate and carbon cycle model
,” J. Clim.
18
, 4531
–4545
(2005
).42.
D. H.
Meadows
, D. L.
Meadows
, J.
Randers
, and W. W.
Behrens
III , The Limits to Growth
(Universe Books
, New York, 1972
);D.
Meadows
, J.
Randers
, and D.
Meadows
, Beyond the Limits – Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future
(Chelsea Green Publishing
, Post Mills, VT, 1992
);D.
Meadows
, J.
Randers
, and D.
Meadows
, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update
(Chelsea Green Publishing
, White River Junction, VT, 2004
).© 2007 American Association of Physics Teachers.
2007
American Association of Physics Teachers
AAPT members receive access to the American Journal of Physics and The Physics Teacher as a member benefit. To learn more about this member benefit and becoming an AAPT member, visit the Joining AAPT page.